Wahooo! It's Winter!

And we're off to a good start - 5. June marks the first day for which snow-data get's recorded and statistically 92% of all seasons since 1993 have less than 10cm of snow or are completely dry. Not today!

Both Mount Buller and Hotham got a good dump last week and now we just have to hope the Winter keeps delivering. If you want to know how this season will do, check out the Grasshopper's June Outlook. Downunder our shred-fests are dependant on the big climate drivers El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) but the Grasshopper can explain their impact much better than I could.

If you want to know how the season is progressing, I'll track it on this page:

Natural Snow Depths 2019

This excludes any snow-making which means it gives you an idea of surrounding backcountry areas. The Mount Buller numbers are good for the Bluff and Stirling while Hotham gives you an indication of Feathertop and the Bogong High Plains.

Cheers 🍻

Philipp

P.S.: ... some pics from the early season opening @ Buller

Snow, Statistically

If you want to know what's going to happen this season, check out what the Grasshopper has to say. According to him we're looking at a decent average season ... but what does that mean?!?!?

Last year I found some historic snow data and recently - with some creative URL tweaking - I was able to retrieve the 2017 data as well. Last year was actually quite a good season with an early start, a bit lazy but average first half and then from mid August onward it dumped down well above the long-term average. 

For us this meant the late-season VCC trip to Bogong had plenty of snow (see pics below) and we were able to do some very stupid stuff 😈

2017 Snow Season

Will it be the same this year? Who knows - at least the season got out of bed on the right foot. Below you'll find the long-term snow statistics for Mount Buller with the some upcoming trips* as black dots.  Now taking the Grasshopper's words for granted we're looking at something along the green line. Nice!

Mt Buller Snow Stats with upcoming trips

Whatever your plans are in the Australian High Country for this winter, it does look promising ... unless you don't like snow ... you weirdo ... get off my website!

Pray for snow! 
Cheers
Philipp


 * Not all of these trips are going to the Mt Buller area but this gives you an idea what to expect if you're going on one of them.

Late Season VCC Mountain Trip - Bogong 24./25.9.2017

Data sourced from data.vic.gov.au
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International 

Natural Snow Depths

How much snow can I expect?

Recently I wrote up another description for an upcoming VCC trip and I was wondering how much snow can be expected. Since this is an existential question for all back country adventurers, I gathered some data and put it into the two graphs below. 

• The green line shows you how much snow you can expect on average.
• The blue and orange lines are the max and min extremes - there is quite a wide range!
• And the red line shows you the percentage of bone dry seasons on that day.

The Buller graph gives you an idea for The Bluff, Westridge and the Howitt area while the Hotham graph is obviously for Bogong and Feathertop. E.g. my chance of running on grass around The Bluff on the 23rd September is 25% while if I'm lucky enough to find snow it might be around the 30cm mark.

You're welcome 😁

Philipp

P.S.: Also keep in mind climate change is real and happening which means the red line goes up and the green line goes down. I know. It's sucks.

Mt Buller Natural Snow Depths 1993 - 2016

Mt Hotham Natural Snow Depths 1993 - 2016

Data sourced from data.vic.gov.au
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International